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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."